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  • Hydrologic Outlook for Northern San Joaquin Valley County, California
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued May 06 at 2:50PM PDT until May 07 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS
  • Effective: Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:50 p.m.
  • Expires: Saturday, May 7, 2016 at 8 p.m.
  • ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
    MINOR STREAM RISES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...
    ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO
    SATURDAY WILL FALL ON ALREADY MOIST SOIL AND LIKELY CAUSES MORE
    SNOW TO MELT IN THE MID/HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK AS SNOW LEVELS
    RISE ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND ABOVE 8500 FEET IN
    MONO COUNTY. SMALL STREAMS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN...ACROSS
    NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...ALONG THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE CARSON
    RANGE AND SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY COULD OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING MINOR FLOODING. POOR
    DRAINAGE AREAS AND AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN IN RECENT BURN SCARS
    COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE FLOODING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
    MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. NO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
    THIS TIME...BUT AREA RIVERS WILL START RUNNING QUITE HIGH BY LATE
    SATURDAY.
    FOR NOW BE AWARE THAT MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
    ANYONE CAMPING OR HIKING NEAR SMALL STREAMS...OR DRIVING NEAR OR
    OTHERWISE MAKING USE OF AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO
    POOR DRAINAGE OR STEEP TERRAIN SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY
    OF FLOODING FOR SATURDAY.

  • Hydrologic Outlook for Northern San Joaquin Valley County, California
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued March 03 at 1:03PM PST until March 08 at 4:00PM PST by NWS
  • Effective: Thursday, March 3, 2016 at 1:03 p.m.
  • Expires: Tuesday, March 8, 2016 at 4 p.m.
  • ...LOW SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR CALIFORNIA THIS
    SPRING...
    THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE SPRING SNOWMELT
    IS LOW AT THIS TIME AT ALL FORECAST POINTS. LONG-RANGE HYDROLOGIC
    ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CURRENTLY INDICATE A 25% OR LESS CHANCE OF
    PRODUCING FLOODING. NOTE THAT FLOODING COULD STILL RESULT FROM
    HEAVY RAINFALL ALONE, OR COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT ANYTIME DURING THE
    SPRING.
    APART FROM THE SPRING SNOWMELT, SHORTER RANGE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE
    CURRENTLY INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST
    HALF OF MARCH,INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN DRIVEN FLOODING AT
    MANY LOCATIONS IN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
    ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS
    WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING.
    CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS
    SNOWPACKS
    - ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE UPPER CA PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER AND
    PIT RIVER IN THE UPPER SACRAMENTO BASIN
    - NEAR AVERAGE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL,AND
    SOUTHERN SIERRA CARSON AND WALKER RIVER DRAINAGES IN THE EAST SIERRA
    SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
    - NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CA PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH
    - NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN BASINS
    - NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WALKER AND CARSON BASINS ON THE
    EAST SIDE OF THE SIERRA
    SEASONAL (APRIL-JULY) RUNOFF FORECASTS
    - NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE KLAMATH
    - NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE SACRAMENTO RIVER
    BASIN
    - NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN AND TULARE BASINS
    - NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE CARSON AND WALKER RIVER
    BASINS
    RESERVOIR STORAGE
    STORAGE LEVELS IN MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN CA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW TO
    MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, WITH FOLSOM LAKE ON THE AMERICAN RIVER ONE OF
    THE FEW PROMINENT EXCEPTIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONTENTS.
    AVERAGE CAPACITY
    TRINITY 47% 35%
    SHASTA 84% 61%
    OROVILLE 78% 52%
    FOLSOM 112% 62%
    NEW MELONES 32% 19%
    NEW DON PEDRO 63% 46%
    MILLERTON 80% 51%
    PINE FLAT 54% 27%
    ISABELLA 23% 8%
    FLOOD EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
    CONSULT THE AHPS LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK MAP FOR THE LATEST POINT
    EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES:
    HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=10
    WHILE FORECASTS ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SEASONAL RUNOFF VOLUMES AND
    PEAKS DUE TO STORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE STATE OVER THE NEXT TWO
    WEEKS, LONG-RANGE HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CURRENTLY INDICATE A
    RELATIVELY LOW POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOWS TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE DUE
    TO THE SPRING SNOWMELT.
    AT THIS TIME, SNOWMELT BASINS IN THE KLAMATH, SACRAMENTO, SAN
    JOAQUIN AND TULARE RIVER BASINS ARE SHOWING A 25% OR LESS CHANCE
    OF FLOODING AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
    AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS INCLUDE:
    SCOTT RIVER NR FT. JONES, CA: <10%
    FEATHER RIVER AT PORTOLA, CA: <10%
    SUSAN RIVER AT SUSANVILLE, CA: <10%
    MERCED RIVER AT POHONO BRIDGE, CA: <30%
    WEST FK. CARSON RIVER AT WOODFORDS, CA: <10%
    WEST WALKER RIVER NR COLEVILLE, CA: <10%
    MOST PROBABLE DATES FOR PEAK DAILY DISCHARGE RANGE FROM MID APRIL TO
    LATE MAY OVER THE ENTIRE CA REGION. MOST PROBABLE PEAK FLOW DATES
    FOR SUB-REGIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
    * MID TO LATE APRIL OVER THE UPPER SACRAMENTO RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SIERRA
    * MID TO LATE MAY OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN AND TULARE BASINS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
    * MID TO LATE MAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN AND
    * LATE MAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WALKER AND CARSON DRAINAGES OF THE EAST SIERRA
    SUMMARY
    THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR PROBABILITIES OF 25% OR LESS FOR
    SNOWMELT FLOODING AT FORECAST POINTS IN CA. THIS FORECAST IS
    CURRENTLY TRENDING HIGHER DUE TO STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
    OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE UPDATED
    ON A DAILY BASIS AND USERS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK THE NATIONAL AHPS
    AND THE LOCAL CNRFC WEB SITES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
    FOR LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FLOOD POTENTIAL PLEASE REFER TO THE AHPS
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK PRODUCT AT:
    HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP
    FOR SHORT-TERM HYDROLOGIC FORECASTS, PLEASE SEE THE AHPS PAGES
    AT: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA:
    HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/FORECASTS.PHP?WFO=STO SOUTHERN
    SIERRA: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/FORECASTS.PHP?WFO=HNX
    FOR GENERAL WATER RESOURCE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE CNRFC
    PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_RESOURCES_UPDATE.PHP

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