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  • Hydrologic Outlook for Grant County, Kansas
  • HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
  • Effective: Friday, February 19, 2010 at 2:24 p.m.
  • Expires: Friday, February 19, 2010 at 2:35 p.m.
  • HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKKSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-187-189-195-191935-HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS107 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO THEFOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...- THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM THE KANSAS-COLORADO STATE LINE TO BELOWLARNED, KANSAS- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS IN TREGO AND ELLISCOUNTIES- THE WALNUT CREEK IN NESS AND RUSH COUNTIES- THE PAWNEE CREEK AND BUCKNER CREEK- THE RATTLESNAKE CREEK AND CROOKED CREEK- THE CIMARRON RIVER AND MEDICINE LODGE RIVERSTHIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 19 THROUGH MARCH 5, 2010.OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCEDNOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE,SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK ISISSUED. OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE ANDPRECIPITATION. THUS, IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL, THENACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OFFLOOD EVENTS IN THE DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORTPERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OFEXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.THOUGH LESS PRODIGIOUS THAN LAST YEAR, THE CURRENT COLORADO ROCKYMOUNTAIN WINTER SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN ISAVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL CONDITIONS. TWELVE USDA SNOTEL SITESSITUATED IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN INDICATE THAT THE SNOWWATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) IS RUNNING 87% OF AVERAGE, WITH AN SWE TOTALESTIMATE OF 70 MILLIMETERS (MM) OF WATER CURRENTLY AVAILABLE FORRUNOFF. THE CUCHARAS AND HUERFANO RIVER BASINS TOGETHER AREAVERAGING 101% OF SWE...WITH A TOTAL OF 27.7 MM OF MOISTUREAVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF. THE PURGATORIE RIVER BASIN IS DISPLAYING 93%OF AVERAGE SWE...APPROXIMATELY 10 MM AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF. THEWINTER SNOWPACK FOR THE COLORADO UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN ISRUNNING 90% OF SNOWPACK AVERAGE, WITH A 102.6 MM OF SWE AVAILABLEFOR RUNOFF.DOWNSTREAM AT THE JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,THE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION STANDS AT 3814.95 FEET...A DECREASE OFAPPROXIMATELY 0.65 FEET ELEVATION, AND 2800 ACRE-FEET OF STORAGE,SINCE THIS TIME LAST YEAR. THE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION ISAPPROXIMATELY 37 FEET BELOW THE TOP OF THE CONSERVATION POOL... THECONSERVATION POOL BEING 19% FILLED. THUS, THERE IS AMPLE RESERVOIRSTORAGE FOR SNOWMELT FROM CURRENT SNOWFALL IN THE UPPER ARKANSASRIVER BASIN.AT THE CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, THE RESERVOIRPOOL ELEVATION STANDS AT 2127.6 FEET, APPROXIMATELY 17 FEET BELOWTHE TOP OF THE CONSERVATION POOL...AND 39 FEET FROM THE TOP OF THEFLOOD POOL...PROVIDING ABUNDANT CAPACITY FOR SPRING RAINS.THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ( SEEHTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML ) UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 16,2010 REVEALS THAT NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ANYWHERE ACROSS THEDODGE CITY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE 8-14 DAY NOAA CLIMATEPREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK ( SEE HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ )INDICATES A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ANDA SLIGHTLY GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.MOIST TOPSOIL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTKANSAS, AND SUB-SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE AMPLE TO SURPLUS.BASED UPON THE ABOVE, THE CHANCE OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT ALONGTHE ARKANSAS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR IN SOUTHWESTKANSAS IS DEEMED AVERAGE. AT OTHER RIVER LOCATIONS, THE CHANCE OFFLOODING IS ALSO DEEMED AVERAGE.CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONSVALID FEBRUARY 19, 2010 - MAY 15, 2010LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---ARKANSAS RIVERCOOLIDGE 8.0 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 7.5SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.4 7.2GARDEN CITY 10.0 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.2DODGE CITY 11.0 6.0 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5KINSLEY 12.0 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.7WALNUT CREEKALEXANDER 4W 31.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 4.2 9.2 12.2 15.6 21.0 26.3NEKOMA 29.0 7.2 7.3 8.0 9.6 14.6 16.6 19.2 23.4 28.0BUCKNER CREEKBURDETT 6W 16.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.6 7.1 8.1 12.4 16.6PAWNEE RIVERBURDETT 7WNW 30.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.6 6.3 9.8 13.4SANFORD 24.0 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.8 7.5 9.3 10.9 14.6RATTLESNAKE CREEKMACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 4.5 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.9ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.5CROOKED CREEKENGLEWOOD 12W 6.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.7CIMARRON RIVERFORGAN 8NNE 5.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 4.0MEDICINE LODGE RIVERKIOWA 2NE 10.0 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.0 4.8 5.4 6.1 7.0BIG CREEKHAYS 2SSE 26.0 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.7 10.0 13.7SALINE RIVERWAKEENEY 5N 13.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.9 9.6SMOKY HILL RIVERARNOLD 12N 7.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.3 4.1 4.8 5.4SCHOENCHEN 2E 11.0 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.3 4.9 6.1THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THATARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MOREYEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THERIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OFTEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OFPROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGEPLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTSARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGICPREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE ENDOF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.VISIT OUR WEBSITE ATHTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC FOR MORE WEATHERAND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVEROUTLOOKS.$$

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