Trump’s war on Iran has caused the biggest disruption the world’s oil market has ever seen. After just 10 days of war the price of crude oil surged to $110 a barrel — 50 percent higher than what it was before the war. According to the Wall Street Journal this war is “unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and threatening the global economy.”
Speaking to the Financial Times, Qatar’s energy minister said, “This will bring down the economies of the world. If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
Fossil fuels have long driven conflict and geopolitical instability, a well as causing deadly pollution and planet-warming emissions. As the costs of clean alternative energy systems like solar, wind, and battery storage have become affordable, most nations have started to transition away from oil and gas. The chaos and disruption of the Iran War will only accelerate that effort.
Last year, 74 percent of the growth in electricity generated worldwide was from wind, solar, and other green sources, according to the UN’s multiagency report called Seizing the Moment of Opportunity. It found that 92.5 percent of all new electricity capacity added to the grid worldwide in that time period came from renewables. Meanwhile, sales of electric vehicles are up from 500,000 in 2015 to more than 17 million in 2024. Solar power now is 41 percent cheaper and wind power is 53 percent cheaper globally than the lowest-cost fossil fuel, the reports said.
Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy cannot be easily blocked or weaponized. Author and climate advocate Bill McKibben recently noted that energy from the sun travels 93 million miles directly to Earth without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Once solar panels and wind turbines are installed, they are fueled by free and unlimited sunlight and wind. No need to “drill, baby, drill” to maintain an endless supply of oil and gas.
Because energy is the lifeblood of our economies, the more energy that can be produced domestically, under a country’s control, the more it provides resilience and security. A decentralized, renewable-led transition is the path towards national and economic security.
Four years ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call for Europe. When Russian gas supplies collapsed, prices went through the ceiling. That vulnerability propelled European countries to ramp up renewable energy development.
Today, the United States is the leading producer of oil and gas in the world and a net exporter of energy. But, because oil is traded on a global market, a problem or conflict anywhere can cause prices to soar. In spite of the Trump administration’s core policy of doubling down on fossil fuels, the U.S. is not immune from price shocks. Like most of the world, American consumers are facing rising gasoline prices.
No nation can achieve hegemony over the sun or the wind. You can’t shoot down sunlight or blow up the wind. It’s incredibly difficult to disable or sabotage a decentralized network of hundreds of solar or wind farms or millions of rooftop solar installations. A country that produces its own power from its own sunlight and wind cannot be held hostage by disrupted shipping lanes or volatile oil markets. As energy prices escalate, nations that continue to rely on imported oil and gas will face crippling inflation.
Transitioning to renewables is usually advocated as an environmental goal — to avoid fossil fuel pollution and its planet-heating emissions. But the instability and chaos of war remind us that the move to clean energy is also a security imperative. It makes sense for governments to look beyond fossil fuels. The push for energy security may end up achieving what climate policy alone could not: pushing countries to move faster toward a more diversified and resilient clean energy system.
Green energy sources like solar and wind don’t just reduce carbon emissions. They dismantle the geopolitics of oil. They empower nations to generate their own electricity, reduce dependence on fossil fuel exporters, and eliminate one of the central motives behind many modern conflicts.
Renewables also weaken the economic grip of authoritarian regimes that depend on oil revenues to fund repression and military aggression. Most petrostates are run by authoritarian regimes. A global transition to clean energy is not just an environmental imperative and a path to national security; it is a democratic and peace-building strategy.
