As of the close of business this Thursday, 15 percent of Santa Barbara county ballots mailed out for this coming Tuesday’s statewide election had been mailed back in to be counted. That’s up from 11 percent a few days before. These numbers suggest a low turnout election. But with no reliable baseline for mail-in non-presidential primary elections, it’s hard to say. In 2022, the final countywide turnout out was 39.8 percent.
With 61 gubernatorial candidates named on the ballot this year, voters may find themselves confounded by a blizzard of ink. Depending on which statewide poll one cites, three clear front runners have managed to emerge. MAGA Republican Steve Hilton — the FOX News pundit endorsed by Donald Trump — is pretty much neck-and-neck with Democrat Xavier Becerra, a 37-year veteran of multiple elected offices. Both are pulling percentages in the low 20s, with billionaire climate change crusader Tom Steyer — who has now spent more than $213 million of his own money on the race — about six points behind.
In the fight for the 2nd Supervisorial District — pitting incumbent Laura Capps against challenger Elijah Mack — turnout was at 16 percent.
The fight for the 5th Supervisorial District — which encompasses Santa Maria and Guadalupe is a wide-open three-way toss up with no incumbent in the race. Progressive Democrat school teacher Ricardo Valencia is running against Cory Bantilan — who for 15 years served as 5th District Supervisor Steve Lavagnino’s right-hand man — and Santa Maria City Councilmember and attorney Maribel Aguilera. The top two vote getters will face each other in the November runoff. Turnout in the 5th District is historically the lowest of all five supervisorial districts and this year bears that out. Even with a wide-open contest and three viable and substantially bankrolled candidates, turnout was only 5 percent as of Thursday evening. Low turnout typically favors older, whiter, and more conservative voters.
According to county election chief Martin Cobos, there’s typically a surge in last-minute ballots in the days immediately prior to the election. Voters have until 8 p.m., Tuesday, June 2 to get their ballots turned in, he said.
Last-day voters have been urged to drop their ballots off in any the 18 secure drop boxes scattered throughout the county or directly at the county’s 61 polling places.
For mail-in ballots to be counted, the envelope must bear a post office stamp of receipt no later than 8 p.m. Tuesday. Outside of California’s major coastal cities, mail dropped at post offices or mailboxes more than 50 miles from a Postal Service regional hub is collected the next day, reminded Attorney General Rob Bonta. Not all ballots deposited in the post boxes that day can be assured of being stamped by 8 pm, meaning they will not get counted.
