State of Play: As Rivals Sprint to June 2 Primary, a Guide to the Governor’s Race

“Journalism,” famously said British author CK Chesterton, “largely consists in saying, ‘Lord Jones is dead’ to people who never knew Lord Jones was alive.”

Welcome to the 2026 California governor’s race.

As voters prepare to bid farewell to incumbent Gavin Newsom — leaving him free to campaign for president full-time, instead of just 80 percent of the time — the race to succeed him remains a nebulous blob. With fewer than 90 days before the June 2 primary, which will winnow the field to two top finishers who then face off in the November 3 general, no clear favorites have emerged from a pack of rivals who’ve been raising money, debating, and giving speeches for months.

The stakes could not be higher.

California’s ongoing war with the Trump administration is political, legal, economic, and sometimes literal — given the militarized incursions into cities by masked federal immigration agents. The next chief executive faces unprecedented challenges navigating relations with a hostile White House, along with a long list of intractable afflictions that Prince Gavin kept assuring us he’d fix in a jiffy: most notably, homelessness and the housing shortage, but also chronic budget shortfalls, deep poverty, a boom-bust tax system, and lackluster public schools.

For starters.

As candidates debate and demagogue such matters over the next 11 weeks, three underlying questions frame the campaign.

Arnold who? A portion of the current electorate was not yet born the last time Californians elected a Republican governor — when Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006 topped the ticket of a far less radical GOP. Former Vice President Kamala Harris’s decision to skip this year’s race left the field without a front-runner, encouraging so many Democrats to enter that California’s leading political data analyst now puts the odds of a one-two Republican finish in the primary at nearly one in four. That outcome — the result of a splintered Democratic vote — would leave Democrats without a November entry and hand Trump an ally in Sacramento whose first order of business would be rolling back the state’s landmark immigrant protections.

Who hates billionaires the most? Democrats disagree about a lot, but fervent rhetoric against billionaires unites them all, at a time of unprecedented concentration of wealth and power in the U.S. It speaks volumes that even the one actual billionaire in the race has launched a full assault against plutocrats. Hedge fund financier Tom Steyer has spent north of $80 million of his own money making a Nixon-to-China argument for why he alone can fix things: “If billionaires don’t like me, I don’t care,” goes one ad tag line.

Will tech lords rule California? The anti-Croesus arrows flying through California’s political atmosphere are aimed largely at Silicon Valley. Amid the spectacle of tech leaders’ capitulation to Trump, big tech has grown more directly active in state politics, forming PACs to oppose a proposed ballot initiative imposing a flat tax on billionaires and block state regulation of AI. Tech money has also fueled the belated entry of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — an industry alum who collected millions from tech tycoons within weeks of announcing.

By the Numbers: Nearly two dozen candidates have pulled papers to run. Ten are considered “major” contenders based on past office, fundraising, or name recognition. Their standing in the most recent statewide poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California:

• Steve Hilton (R) — 14
• Katie Porter (D) — 13
• Chad Bianco (R) — 12
• Eric Swalwell (D) — 11
• Tom Steyer (D) — 10
• Xavier Becerra (D) — 5
• Antonio Villaraigosa (D) — 5
• Betty Yee (D) — 5
• Matt Mahan (D) — 3*
• Tony Thurmond (D) — 2

*(Mahan entered after the PPIC survey was conducted. Green Party candidate and UCSB professor Butch Ware was not included).

The Right-Wingers. Two conservative Republicans have been wrangling over who is more Trumpy — and every Democrat’s nightmare is that they finish one-two in the primary.

• Steve Hilton, 56, is a glib former Fox News host and ex–Conservative Party strategist who emigrated from the U.K. in time to jump aboard Trump’s 2016 bandwagon. He emerged as a 2020 election denier and has used Stanford’s Hoover Institution as a base to promote right-wing policy plans in California, including a pro-developer housing initiative that failed to qualify.
• Chad Bianco, 59, is Riverside County’s termed-out sheriff, whose management of the county jail drew a state investigation amid a high number of inmate deaths. His refusal to enforce Covid mandates made him a Fox News hero, and while MAGA voters love his pushback against sanctuary state immigration laws, they question his cordial handling of George Floyd protests.

The Liberal Troika. The three leading Democrats all made their bones as Trump antagonists during his first term and carry progressive platforms on climate, health care, and housing.

• Katie Porter, 52, won an Orange County House seat in the 2018 Democratic wave and became a social media sensation with withering committee interrogations of bankers and billionaires — with a whiteboard as her signature prop. She relinquished her seat for a failed 2024 Senate bid and now runs as a champion of universal health care and universal childcare, funding TBD.
• Eric Swalwell, 45, is a seven-term Bay Area congressmember and Pelosi protégé who made gun control a centerpiece of his brand. He used an Intelligence Committee perch to attack Trump over Russian election interference and helped lead the first failed impeachment, then briefly and embarrassingly ran for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
• Steyer, 68, was born rich in New York, made billions running the Farallon Capital hedge fund, then stepped back to form NextGen America, a PAC focused on climate and clean energy. He self-financed a failed 2020 presidential bid and several progressive ballot initiatives before pouring more of his fortune into this race.

The Wild Card. More pro-business and moderate on cultural issues than the three leading Democrats, Mahan, 43, entered the race in late January but swiftly made a splash brandishing support from Silicon Valley. As San Jose’s mayor, he built a centrist reputation as a Newsom foil, pushing tougher policies on crime and homelessness. His late start means limited name recognition statewide, but his fundraising trajectory likely makes him a factor.

The Four Formers. Four lagging Democratic insiders have resisted calls from some party leaders to exit the race.

Xavier Becerra, 68, is a former L.A. congressmember, former state attorney general, and former U.S. secretary of health and human services. Antonio Villaraigosa, 73, is a former Assembly speaker, former L.A. mayor, and former governor’s candidate who lost to Newsom in 2018. Betty Yee, 68, is a former budget adviser to Governor Gray Davis, a former Board of Equalization member, and the former state controller. Tony Thurmond, 57, is a former Richmond councilmember, former state legislator, and soon-to-be former state superintendent of public instruction.

Fair or not, their continued presence helps fuel fears of a two-Republican November runoff.

But even Newsom, asked what he would do to encourage low-polling Democrats to leave the race, suggested he’s not paying much more attention than the average Californian.

“I honestly haven’t taken a look,” he told reporters recently. “I’m not directly as engaged as perhaps I might need to be.”