Posted on March 8 at 4:46 p.m.

Mr. Bacevich,

Thanks for your article. I'd appreciate your input on the thoughts below:

Isn't it true that saying "violence is down" is distinct from saying "the surge is working?"

Most obviously, al Sadr's cease fire in the south clearly dropped violence, but it doesn't seem remotely connected to 30,000 extra U.S. troops and new fighting tactics.

With regard to the Sunni Awakening Councils, my best info is that their alliance with us began when Sheik al Sittar met with Lt. Col. Mcfarlane, who was running Ramadi for us, in August 2006, three full months before the surge was even announced. Should the pro-surge believers be able to claim the Awakening Councils as a benefit of their actions?

Next, the ethnic cleansing that has already occurred further lowered the number of targets for the death squads.

The remainder of the improvements I gladly attribute to 30,000 extra troops and new tactics.

Am I on a reasonable track here? Are the points I raise accurate and/or important?

Thanks so much for your response.

Guy Kraines

On Where We Fall Down