Posted on August 22 at 5:47 p.m.

Thanks to the County Board of Supervisors for scheduling this hearing and to Tam for highlighting it.

Our nation's designated scientific advisers, the National Academy of Sciences, have done no studies explicitly on "peak oil" or "peak fossil fuels." The current energy studies omit this crucial fact, which is like omitting “The tidal wave is in an hour!” or “The asteroid will hit next week!”

Why does it matter? Because we have no objective analysis on how to deal with a near-term peak.

Congress should direct the NAS to undertake immediate, parallel studies that look at the problem in detail. We need to look at risk management, contingency planning and take an objective look at structural adjustments – as opposed to a narrow focus on how to make up for lost oil and gas inputs, which cannot really be done in time.

For a quick overview of how soon "peak" will hit, see the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database. For understanding why even this projection is overly optimistic, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land....
Exports are and will continue to decline more rapidly than world rates. This spells catastrophe for importers, if left unaddressed.

Studies on the economic consequences of “peak” show disturbing results. (Scientific references are listed in the free report Cliff offers.) This is why many analysts, such as those quoted in Cliff’s report – are simply beside themselves. How can they get the point across?

On Peak Oil: What Are We to Do?

Posted on June 22 at 4:21 p.m.

Dear Jonathan,

Thanks for responding. I'm limited by the space here, and I'm not sure this is meant to be a discussion site.

The "red line" I refer is not "malarky". It's a scientific model.

However, we do not need the model. It is possible to simply look at the behavior of oil-producing countries as their oil production goes into decline. The net exports go down. This means that the impact on importing countries, of which the US is one, is quite severe. And will only worsen with time. We ignore these facts at our peril.

While, of course, the CEC program is to be lauded, it does not directly address the scenario Robert Hirsch presented. We will be faced with this horrific situation very soon. We will be "fossil free" by necessity. When Hirsch said that the world faces trauma, he is not joking.

We need the get the facts and prepare now.

On Whatever, Dog

Posted on June 13 at 4:06 p.m.

Thank you, Nick.

I'm glad you were there.

I wish the format had allowed Dr. Hirsch to respond to comments directed to him from later speakers, as that would have allowed him to give more background on the scenario he presented.

The seven years until severe impacts may be quite optimistic.

People need to check the facts for themselves, talk about it, and start to take some actions that can really help us prepare.

You can start with "google" and type in "Export Land Model". Look closely at the red line.

www.energybulletin.net and www.theoildrum.com are also good sites.

Then contact the CEC and ask if they'll help you set up a "Peak Oil Task Force". Or do it yourself. Because we need one. We need more than one.

A friend stopped me to question "Why is it our leaders aren't telling us about this? It can't be a conspiracy!"

Of course not. It's just our human nature - fear, lack of understanding and most of us don't know geology, the physics of energy conversion or the miracle behind the wall socket. And Congressman Roscoe Barlett (R, MD), a scientist by training, gives his "Peak Oil" talks to an empty House. And, of course, our entire economy is based on an assumption of growth.

Growth that's fueled by oil.

Our elected reps are waiting to hear from us.

On Whatever, Dog

Posted on June 13 at 3:49 p.m.

Sidewalks, bike trails, rideshare - yes. Otherwise, crazy as it sounds - we need to stop, look and listen up.

The planners, Supervisors, and SBCAG have not caught up to the price of oil, which is, in turn, simply "Phase One" of a contraction of the economy that will not end in our lifetimes. We are in the beginning of "Transition One" of the decline of the rate of global oil production - and the fast-shrink of global industrial economies that accompanies it.

To put a single cent into new road construction or widening is, unfortunately, a tragic waste.

Please seek the facts for yourself. Please get out your "google" and type in "Export Land Model". Look carefully at the graph with the red line.

This is our future and it is here. Now.

On 101 Expansion Project Begins