With nearly half of California’s precincts reporting by 9 p.m., the state’s voters have cast their ballots in favor of Prop 50 by a margin of 64.6 to 35.4 percent. In Santa Barbara County, where 136 of 141 precincts had reported in part, the vote was similar: 65.7 percent for and 34.3 percent against. The turnout in the county was 35.4 percent in the November 4 election, which will be certified December 12.
To Governor Gavin Newsom’s pre-election prediction: “They poked the bear and the bear is poking back” while trolling Trump in social media, calling him “an old man that knows he’s about to LOSE,” the White House’s Karoline Leavitt responded on Tuesday, calling the state’s mail-in ballots “fraudulent” and claiming that the names of “illegal aliens” were written in.
“If there are irregularities, what are they? Why won’t they identify them? Where exactly is this fraud?” demanded California Secretary of State Shirley Weber soon afterward. “The bottom line is, California elections have been validated by the courts.”
A relentless snail mail and electronic advertising blitz by both sides, pro and con, reflected $254.5 million in contributions as of November 2, Weber’s office reported. Of those, $171.6 million went to Yes on Prop 50 and $82.9 million to No. More than a quarter of a million donations came in, some as small as $4, others in the millions, and from Hawai‘i to Florida but primarily California.
In the million-dollar “yes” camp, the top donor was Newsom’s Yes on 50 committee, which raised $102.3 million and reportedly had to ask people to stop donating at one point, donations were so heavy. The HMP, or House Majority PAC, founded after the Citizens United ruling to elect Dems to the House, ponied up $45.9 million. Unions of teachers, nurses, carpenters, and Democratic PACs raised a collective $18.1 million, as well as $2 million in donations from Montecito residents Wendy and Eric Schmidt.
Among the “no” faction was Charles Munger Jr.’s Protect Voters First committee, named for the ballot proposition that established the citizens redistricting commission in 2008 ($32.7 million); a GOP PAC to elect Republicans to Congress ($44.3 million); and donations from former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and current Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio. Former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab” committee raised $6.6 million and included Santa Barbara County’s 4th District Supervisor Bob Nelson among its supporters as well as the County Farm Bureau.
After the polls closed, Nelson commented that Prop 50 was gerrymandering district lines, which he did not support. “I was one of the main proponents behind the redistricting commission in our county,” he noted. “There was kind of a lot of noise from other states,” he said, “but two wrongs don’t make a right.”
Nelson is on the board of the Rural County Representatives of California, and he was concerned that District 2 now runs from Modoc County to the Golden Gate Bridge. “That’s a seven-hour drive,” he said. “Rural counties are already under-represented and this further disenfranchises them.”
The passage of Prop 50 means the fight to gain a firmer grip on the U.S. House of Representatives is on. “Tonight, California voters fought back against the President’s efforts to avoid accountability and amass power ahead of the 2026 midterm elections,” said Assemblymember Gregg Hart. “As other states change the rules in the middle of the game, California will not stand idly by. I am proud to have co-authored ACA 8 [Prop 50], empowering the people of California to make this extraordinary decision, meet the moment, and protect our democracy.”
With a 219 to 213 vote advantage in the House, Republicans hope to add as many as nine more from Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Utah, Indiana, and Ohio. California’s possible five Dem seats could be followed by a seat or two from Virginia, Maryland, Illinois, or New York. The blue states must negotiate redistricting commissions and their constitutions, while red states tend to have a simpler route through their governor’s office. Prop 50 — called the “Election Rigging Response Act” — will amend California’s Constitution to temporarily redraw congressional districts until the 2030 Census.
Added to the win in California are new Democratic governors in Virginia and New Jersey and the election of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s mayor. Then there’s the new low in Trump’s approval rating. The Economist/YouGov’s most recent poll found that only 39 percent of adult citizens approved of his performance as president, while 58 percent disapproved. Trump maintained an 86 percent approval rating among Republicans.
With loyal voters in red states, Trump has threatened to undercut any politician who votes against him, which matters in the midterms — the House election in the middle of a presidential term. Prop 50 hopes to push California’s majority in Democrats’ favor, but the outcome ultimately will rest with the voters during the 2026 midterms.
