Tune In, Turn Out

New Polling Shows Key Dems Less Attentive, Less Likely to Vote

Thursday, May 8, 2014
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About the only anxiety California Democrats need to have about the November election is whether Governor Jerry Brown is reelected with a 55 or a 65 percent margin.

Nationally, it’s a much different story.

Oh sure, there are a few statewide concerns for Dems to fret over, most importantly if they reclaim their super majority of seats in the state Senate, where their numbers have been reduced by scandal. But when California’s biggest political yarn figures to be the bruising battle for Secretary of State – sheesh – the Ds might as well kick back and enjoy the baseball season (assuming a Dodgers telecast ever again airs here).

Jerry Roberts

While the Golden State certainly will prove true blue anew in November, however, Republicans across the nation are poised, not only to increase their big majority in the House of Representatives but also to seize control of the U.S. Senate.

“Republicans have an 82 percent chance of claiming the six seats they need to move back into the majority” in the Senate, the Washington Post reported this week, citing a new election projection model built for them by political scientists and propeller heads.

Lingering opposition to the Affordable Care Act, the defective rollout of the Obamacare website and the sputtering economic recovery may all be identified as possible explanations for the Democrats’ flagging chances. As a practical matter, however, the decisive factor will be the makeup of the universe of voters for a traditionally low-turnout midterm election.

So-called “drop-off voters” are those who cast ballots in presidential elections every four years but fail to vote in the congressional races in the two years between. For example, about 130 million people voted in the 2012 election that reelected Obama; only about 90 million did in the 2010 midterm that wiped out the Democratic majority in the House.

According to a just-released NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, Republicans are positioned to take advantage of an electorate reshaped by drop-offs, just as they did four years ago. Among voters who said they voted in 2012 but not 2010, the survey showed that:

• 51 percent are Democrats, compared to 25 percent Republicans and 17 percent independents.

• 61 percent are women, compared to just 39 percent men, a key finding at a time when the partisan split among female voters substantially favors Democrats.

• 25 percent are the youngest voters, aged 18-34, who went heavily for Obama in both 2008 and 2012, while just 12 percent are 65 and over, the group from which the GOP draws its heaviest support.

• 53 percent of Republican voters surveyed said they have high interest in the November election, compared to 38 percent of Democrats, an indication that the national electorate will skew to the right.

Bottom line from Bill McInturff, the GOP member of the bipartisan team that conducts the poll: “These are very, very difficult numbers” for Democrats.

SAVE US FROM OURSELVES: As mail-in ballots went out this week, one month before the June 3 primary, establishment Republicans are circling the wagons around Neel Kashkari, the moderate ex-Goldman Sachs suit who lags considerably behind Assemblymember Tim Donnelly, a Tea Party favorite and hard-edged social conservative.

In the past week, 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney; former Florida governor (and possible 2016 presidential wannabe) Jeb Bush; ex-state governor Pete Wilson; high-profile California Rep. Darrell Issa; syndicated conservative talk-show host Hugh Hewitt; and assorted legislative colleagues of Donnelly all endorsed Kashkari.

These and other establishment types are under no illusions about a Republican knocking off Brown.

Their fear, however, is that Donnelly will win second place in next month’s top two primary and prove not just a liability but an outright national embarrassment for the party. The best-case scenario is that Donnelly, who’s already suggested Brown was involved in a Chappaquiddick cover-up, would lose the governor’s race three or four to one; their worst is that his shoot-from-the-lip style would lead Donnelly to make a comment, or stage an outburst, that goes viral — for all the wrong reasons.

Amid the endorsements, it’s not a huge surprise that Kashkari this week announced he was pitching $500,000 of his own money into his long, long-shot bid. It’s tough to get people to pony up for a lost cause, especially if you’re not willing to help pay for it yourself.

THIS JUST IN: In the NBC News survey cited above, poll takers also asked a batch of questions about the difference between people’s lives today and 15 years ago. Some intriguing findings:

Fifteen years ago, just 21 percent of Americans said someone in their household had a tattoo. Today, the figure is 40 percent – and 58 percent for those aged 18-34.

More: just 47 percent said they read a print newspaper at least three times a week — a precipitous drop from the 79 percent who said they did 15 years ago, yet 71 percent of those polled said they read a newspaper in print or online. But if you’re reading this, you already knew that.


Independent Discussion Guidelines

I am along the lines of "Tune Out / Turn In", as a person who has lost all faith in American Voting and Elections, and since living on the East Coast and within, "The Beltway", know for a fact that voting for the Peon is fruitless, those who can Buy a Politician have the biggest voice and will be the deciding Vote in every Election no matter what us Peons choose.

dou4now (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 8:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)

True dat. Big Labor, Big Business, and extremely wealthy individuals rule.

JohnLocke (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 8:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)

That is what happens when you run out of spending other people's money: Democrats then totally lose interest in the entire process.

They are not known as the "Gimmedat Party" for nothing.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 8:58 a.m. (Suggest removal)

They're only known as that in your head Foo. One of many many voices I'm sure.

Ken_Volok (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 9:01 a.m. (Suggest removal)

The best things that Dems can do is organize-organize-organize, and hope that the 'Publicans continue to push their efforts to limit and even take away citizens' voting rights. Nothing motivates one more than being told, "No, you can't do that." Well, there are a lot more ways that the 'Publicans can and likely will commit political suicide, but let's keep it simple.

GregMohr (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 10:24 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Democrats take away our money, which is reason enough to organize against them.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 10:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Democrats now want to electronically track every mile we drive so they can raise more money for themselves, now lost to the very high MPG demands they put on the cars we now drive.

Listen up, Democrats: NO, you can't do that.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 10:30 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Too many years of Democrat and public sector rule in this state has left us with $200 billion government employee pension debt and a stagnant economy where even the Democrat greenie darling Tesla wants to leave.

Keep voting Democratic to make government union workers even wealthier? Your call. Because every dime they get comes out of your hide. You would think they would say thank you, but all you hear from the Democrats is we want MORE.

BTW: Greg Mohr is a government union boss. He gets paid with your dollars right off the top. I am a mere taxpayer.

No Greg, you can't have any more of my money. Crank up the economy if you want more revenues for your union buddies.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 10:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Don't vote union this year.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 10:43 a.m. (Suggest removal)

There another reason democrats don't vote mid-term. It's called being disillusioned with a party that continues republican policies.

1. The democrats had a chance to defund the NSA and they voted to fully fund it. Even Lois Capps voted to support the NSA funding.

2. Pushing new nuclear power plants. Obama has actively worked for a new plant in Georgia.

3. It's been 6 years for Obama and our military is still in the middle-east. Foot-dragging. We should have been totally out of there in 1-2 years.

4. The economy still sucks.

Georgy (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 11:12 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Georgy makes the best point so far, but I would personally word it much differently.

Why are policies like funding the NSA, "pushing" for nuclear power plants and engaging ourselves in the middle east "Republican" policies?? They certainly aren't "conservative" policies. "Conservative" policies would be to de-fund the NSA, not "push" nor "restrict" nuclear power plants except to hold them fully accountable (which would necessitate largely unaffordable insurance premiums, I think nuclear plants would be much smaller scale and safer in a free market) and most certainly ending our overseas empire and occupation of foreign countries.

In his new book, Ralph Nader has called for progressives and libertarians to unite against the establishment in 2016 and back Republican Senator Rand Paul for President:

loonpt (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 11:35 a.m. (Suggest removal)

May 8, 2014 at 10:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Democrats now want to electronically track every mile we drive so they can raise more money for themselves, now lost to the very high MPG demands they put on the cars we now drive.

Listen up, Democrats: NO, you can't do that.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 10:30 a.m

YES, they CAN do that, and so can the Republicans. The American people--uh--sheeple default in the voting booth to whoever the DNC or the RNC tells them to vote for even though they say they are tired of the status quo.

American voters suffer so badly from "Cold Feet" that it's a wonder the ground they walk on isn't covered in ice.

billclausen (anonymous profile)
May 8, 2014 at 5:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)

"BTW: Greg Mohr is a government union boss. He gets paid with your dollars right off the top. I am a mere taxpayer. "

Another fantasy from foof. I am not now, nor have I ever been, a paid employee of any union. I'm not even a current member of any union, except the Consumers Union. Also, I've never registered to vote as either a Dem or a 'Publican. Also, never missed voting in any election since the first time, after I turned 18.

And by God I pay my taxes (sales, property, income, et al.), every cent, the same as every other honest person, and have the receipts to prove it.

foof, you need therapy.

GregMohr (anonymous profile)
May 10, 2014 at 3:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)

interesting how foo, writing under a pseudonym, slams honest Greg Mohr posting under his actual legal name and persona: many of us agree foo is hearing voices and desperately needs some therapy.
agree with your first 3 comments, georgy, but the economy is perking up and although you're tired of this: Geo Bush, the neo-cons, nasty Dick Cheney slammed us into two wars and didn't ask the Republic to pay for it, plus our real estate bubble...we're digging out of that.
The NSA thing is the worst.

DrDan (anonymous profile)
May 10, 2014 at 4:52 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Greg Mohr carefully says: "I am not even a current member of any union".

Excuse the timing of my remarks; but not the substance.

foofighter (anonymous profile)
May 10, 2014 at 5:42 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Sir Gregory Eldeberry Mohr was born on June,6, 1933 in Derbyshire, England. Elected to the House of Lords he then transferred over to the U.S. where he, along with Dr.Dan, Loonpt, Bilclausen, and Georgy formed a secret branch of the Bilderberg Group. They control unions, they own the Koch Brothers, as well as control most of Hollywood, and have all slept in the Lincoln bedroom. They are all part of a joint Jewish-Muslim conspiracy to destabilize the American economy.

Don't think I'm crazy for writing this, because the voices in my head are coming from Foo.

dolphinpod14 (anonymous profile)
May 10, 2014 at 9:02 p.m. (Suggest removal)

yes, I well recall when Sir G. Eldeberry Mohr joined us in the Bilderberg Geheimnis Branch, although we soon fell out with loon's endless bizarre conspiracy theses, and BC kept moaning about Der Tragoedie of the SYValley and Georgy kept calling out his shrill "The economy still sucks" -- what's a poor schoolteacher living on SB's Westside to do? thanks, dolphin, for blowing our cover.

DrDan (anonymous profile)
May 11, 2014 at 11:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Did they all sleep in Lincoln's bedroom at the same time?

Ken_Volok (anonymous profile)
May 11, 2014 at 11:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)

GregMohr (anonymous profile)
May 11, 2014 at 11:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Ken, some of us did. We were provided with pup tents in which we slept.

dolphinpod14 (anonymous profile)
May 11, 2014 at 6:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)

That'd make'm dolphin tents.

Ken_Volok (anonymous profile)
May 11, 2014 at 11:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Probably packed you in like sardines, poor dolphinpod.

Ken_Volok (anonymous profile)
May 11, 2014 at 11:29 p.m. (Suggest removal)

GregMohr: I am the spawn (virtual love child) of Foofighter and Loonpt and I would like to apologize for the libelous comment Foofighter made accusing you of being a union boss.

FoolPt (anonymous profile)
May 12, 2014 at 5:34 a.m. (Suggest removal)

♂♀ ∞ ☺

GregMohr (anonymous profile)
May 12, 2014 at 11:17 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Is that a coded message for your Bilderberg cronies?

Ken_Volok (anonymous profile)
May 12, 2014 at 11:25 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Naah, it's part of the opening of "Ben Casey," with Dr. Zorba at the chalkboard. Plus the happy face, just to update it to around 1970.

In full, "Man, Woman, Birth, Death, Infinity."

GregMohr (anonymous profile)
May 14, 2014 at noon (Suggest removal)

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