What’s Behind Low Turnout in Santa Barbara Democratic Primary

RIDDLE ME THIS:  Somehow, I never mastered the art of reading pigeon entrails. I’m not much better, in fact, when it comes to statistical analysis. “Numbers lie and liars figure,” I like to say with a DGAF shrug.

Even so, I remain mystified as to the meaning of the most glaring single factoid to emerge from the county’s March 5 primary elections. Why is it that only 22 percent of all registered Democrats bothered to cast a ballot in their party’s presidential primary. I say “only” because 55 percent of all registered Republicans made the effort to cast a ballot for their candidate, the winner being the human personification of irritable bowel syndrome. 

Naturally, I worry it has everything to do with Gaza. In many states, Democrats didn’t cast ballots in their presidential primaries or filled in the word “uncommitted” in lieu of their candidate’s name. I am told by people who I believe know such things that it doesn’t. I’m not sure they’re right. And if they’re not, what could this mean for November’s presidential run-off? Especially with World War III now appearing larger in the reflection of our rearview mirrors.

Just to state the obvious, Santa Barbara County remains so overwhelmingly Democratic that less than one quarter of all registered Dems — 52,536 — is still a much bigger number than 55 percent of all registered Republicans. That percentage translates to 32,615 voters.  

But given the excruciatingly tight margins victory will require, a similarly low Democratic turnout throughout the nation could be a deal killer for Joe Biden in November. And by extension — for those of us who regard the outcome of that race with a high degree of moral alarmism — the future of the universe.

To put all this torpor toward Biden in a local perspective, his percentages were less than half of the turnout generated by races for a seat on Santa Barbara County’s Democratic Central Committee. And aside from three perpetually disgruntled bloggers who live only to fulminate against the aforementioned committee, no one else knows what a Democratic Central Committee even is. 

Naturally, I blame the horrors of Gaza and all the assaults on humanity that have taken place there since October 7. Hamas should be brought up on charges of war crimes by the world court; supporters of the Palestinians do themselves and the suffering endured by the Palestinian people no favor by chanting Hamas-sponsored slogans like “From the River to the Sea.” It’s not only morally irresponsible, but strategically, it plays directly into the hands of those inclined to dismiss any criticism of Israel as anti-Semitism. 

In all this, Biden has distinguished himself by the unnerving flassitude of his response to the scale of human suffering endured by Palestinian civilians. Only recently has Biden begun to betray signs of a spine in response to the bellicose intransigence of Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu. But only after seven humanitarian workers with world famous chef José Andrés’s World Central Kitchen got blown to smithereens has Netanyahu been moved to issue an apology for anything. 

But even then, Netanyahu — yet another strong man whose actions incited the very violence he pledged to protect his country from — first responded with his signature dismissive “shit happens” shrug. War, after all, is war. His apologies, however, do not explain how these missiles were launched in the first place at vehicles that bore clear logos and markings of the World Central Kitchen — markings that were well-known to Israeli military commanders. War happens. 

While this incident is now grabbing the headlines, another 195 humanitarian aid workers have already been killed in Gaza since October 7, not to mention 95 reporters trying to cover the conflict. And, of course, there are the 32,000 civilians killed. 

I start with the premise that Israel exists and has a right to defend itself. International law, we are told, requires “proportionality” for such military responses. We are also told that “proportionality” is now an arcane term-of-law that means anything except what the plain language suggests it might. 

For those of us nervous about the onset of World War III, Israel’s decision to bomb the Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this week only stoked the furnace of our growing apprehension. In this context, Biden’s current push to sell $18 billion worth of F-15 fighter jets, capable of achieving top speeds of 2,000 miles an hour, with no conditions on military conduct attached, is gravely disheartening. 

The only encouraging news is that tens of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets — rioting, in fact — to protest of Netanyahu’s conduct of the war and his failure to secure release of the hostages still held by Hamas.

I bring all this up not just because I am horrified, but because in this past Tuesday’s four statewide primary elections, anywhere from 5 to 15 percent of Democrats cast protest ballots either marked “uncommitted” or left blank. That comes on the heels of previous primaries in battleground states in which the uncommitted votes hit up to 20 percent. 

Could this have any bearing on the large percentage of Democrats who didn’t bother voting here? I am told by people who have seen the polls and know about such things that is not the case here.

Maybe they are correct. And maybe they are not. 

Like I say. I never learned to read pigeon entrails. Maybe it’s not too late.

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POSTSCRIPT FROM THE POODLE

Last week’s column on my bike accident got a lot of comments, mostly wishing me well in in light of my close encounter with an automobile. To everyone who wrote, many, many thanks. It means a lot. Many of you shared stories of their own, close escapes or not escapes at all. I heard from too many people — many onetime ardent cyclists — who have given up on their bipedal propulsion because of safety considerations. One has rediscovered Santa Barbara from the point of view of an adventurous pedestrian explorer. One stopped riding completely, she said, when cell-phone use achieved critical mass. Going out on the road became too much of an act of faith when there was too much evidence to the contrary.  

Others wanted to know who was at fault in my crash. The short answer is, I don’t really know. It could have been me. It could have been both of us. One writer let me know I should have taken a different route — she was right — and that my collision exemplifies why she doesn’t ride anymore. 

The sentiment I heard most of all was along the lines of “Those damn e-bike riders!” coupled with “Something needs to be done.” While I tend to regard the e-bike as the missing link that will really get large numbers of people out of their cars, I wholeheartedly agree that something needs to be done. What that is exactly, however, still remains to be seen. People need to feel safe, and perception plays as much of a role in that as reality does. Clearly, training and education are key.

I have long thought the redshirts of City Hall could be dispatched to State Street on e-bikes of their own. They could deliver gentle crash courses in road etiquette to riders displaying acts of aggressive cluelessness.

I would note that at the beginning of COVID, when State Street was first opened up as a pedestrian mall, we saw an influx of youthful wheelie-poppers and stunt riders. They took to the street en masse. Some of us were amazed and jealous. Some were intimidated and concerned. A lot of us were both. But here’s the deal: They have all but evaporated. You don’t see them anymore. What happened? Did some kindly uncle tap them gently on the shoulder to impart upon them a sudden lesson in manners?  Or was it more forceful than that?

I mention this because I am genuinely curious. But also to make the point that not all problems are intractable. I am not a Pollyanna. I have friends who’ve been on the losing end of such collisions. But the problems posed by the new technology are solvable. We just haven’t tried very hard. If at all. There is something joyful in the exuberance of these young riders, however suicidally inconsiderate they may be in the moment. We need to embrace that joy and harness it. It helps to remember that we all were young and stupid once. The moral of the story is this: We can get there from here. But mostly what I wanted to say was thanks to all of you for your kind thoughts and for reaching out.

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