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Newly released data shows how declining birth rates and housing development are affecting enrollment at Santa Barbara Unified schools.
District staff and consultants presented the data during a special Board of Trustees study session on Saturday, Nov. 7.
The meeting covered three parts: changing demographics, intradistrict transfer trends, and consideration of a new facilities committee.
“Understanding where our students live and how enrollment is changing helps us plan for their needs,” said Superintendent Hilda Maldonado. “This study gives us the foundation to work with our community on how we use our schools and resources to support strong programs and opportunities for every student.”
SB Unified Educates 88% of Students Ages 14–17
The research takes a deep look at the causes of declining enrollment at Santa Barbara Unified. Preliminary analysis shows the district enrolls 88% of study-area residents ages 14–17. In addition, 70% of elementary residents attend their home school
MGT Impact Solutions, a firm specializing in demographic analysis, is conducting the research.
MGT’s preliminary data show that fewer births are the biggest driver of declining enrollment. Births in the five ZIP codes used for the elementary analysis fell 24%, from 1,152 in 2014 to 876 in 2024.
MGT says fewer children are on the South Coast due to soaring housing and rental prices, an aging real estate market, and smaller households. This is expected to cause the number of residents 75 and older to grow 39% by 2031.
“We have back-to-back generations of students who have grown up through a global recession and pandemic. It’s pushed families starting into their late 20s or early 30s,” said Lorne Woods, MGT Vice President and Demographer.
Those birth trends point to about 530–555 kindergarten students annually at Santa Barbara Unified elementary schools through the 2029–30 school year. The study also projects that the number of residents ages 5–17 will decline another 6% by 2031.
The data also shows how potential housing projects could affect growth in area schools. Preliminary estimates suggest seven projects totaling about 3,250 homes could add about 310 district students, mostly in grades 7–12, at full buildout.
Based on where current projects are underway or planned, schools in the Goleta Valley, including La Colina Junior High and San Marcos High School, would receive most of the new students, an estimated 226 of the 310. Most units would fill after 2028. The district would also see a later wave as about 275 children from the new housing attend other public elementary school districts before entering SB Unified junior highs over the next decade.
Data Shows Transfer Trends at All Grade Levels
Currently, about 70% of elementary residents in the study attend their neighborhood school. Transfers also affect enrollment in the upper grades.
The district sees similar transfer patterns at junior highs. About 28% of students living in the La Cumbre attendance area and 32% in the Santa Barbara Junior High attendance area attend another district junior high, compared with 9% in the La Colina area and 6.6% in the Goleta Valley area.
Trustees asked district staff to return with potential revisions to transfer policies to ease pressure on the current system.
That process will take place over the next school year, but any changes would not take effect until 2028–29, as the 2027–28 enrollment period starts Dec. 1.
Board to Consider Facilities Advisory Committee This Spring
The meeting concluded with a presentation on the process for engaging in a public facilities-use study.
The analysis would examine classroom availability, aging buildings, amenities, environmental factors, and more.
“We’re moving in the right direction, but we are just starting the journey, and we may still have several turns we can’t even see yet. I hope we can be agile enough to make adjustments throughout the process,” said board President Bill Banning.
Trustees would consider forming a facilities advisory committee after MGT completes its demographic report, which it expects to deliver by March 12, 2027.
