Another Storm Heads for Santa Barbara as City Exceeds Normal Annual Rainfall

Rain is returning to Santa Barbara County heading into the first weekend of January, continuing a storm pattern that has already delivered one of the wettest starts to a water year in recent memory.

According to the National Weather Service, light showers are expected to begin Friday, with the heaviest rainfall arriving Saturday morning. Forecast models show precipitation intensifying through late morning and into early afternoon Saturday, bringing rainfall rates of up to three-quarters of an inch per hour in some areas.

“Showers this morning, bulk coming in later tonight and tomorrow morning,” said Mike Wofford, meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “Not going to repeat Christmas,” he said, referring to the intense holiday storm that brought flooding and road closures. “Short of Christmas, but still, not too shabby.”

Rain totals through Monday could reach two to three inches in coastal areas, and between four and six inches in the foothills and mountains. Rain is expected to taper to off-and-on showers through Sunday and into early next week.

While no major flood warnings were issued as of Friday morning, Wofford said that localized flooding is possible, especially in creeks and low-lying areas. “We’ve had a lot of rain recently, and it doesn’t take too much to get water flowing out of where it normally flows,” he said.

Santa Barbara County officials have issued storm safety guidance through January 5, warning of potential flooding in low-lying areas, flash floods, coastal erosion, and power outages. Residents are advised to avoid creeks, beaches, and recently burned areas, and to prepare for possible evacuation or shelter-in-place orders. Strong winds may cause downed trees or outages, and some roadways could be impacted by mudslides or debris flows. Emergency alerts, sandbag locations, and storm updates are available through ReadySBC and the county’s road status websites.

This storm follows a relatively weaker system, compared to the mid-November storm and Christmas storm, that passed through Santa Barbara County on New Year’s Eve. That storm brought steady rain across the region but caused no significant incidents. According to National Weather Service data, rainfall totals from the December 31 system included 1.15 inches in Santa Barbara, 1.09 inches in Goleta, 0.92 inches in Buellton, and 2.5 inches or more in parts of the foothills.

Those totals helped push the county’s seasonal rainfall well past normal. As of January 1, the City of Santa Barbara had recorded 19.37 inches for the water year, exceeding its annual average just three months into the season. Countywide, the figure reached 94 percent of the seasonal norm. At the Santa Barbara Airport, 17.57 inches have fallen since the water year began on October first, which is over a foot above normal for this time of year. 

November’s storms delivered 8.90 inches of rain at the airport, making it the wettest November on record. December’s back-to-back systems kept the pattern going. The Christmas Eve storm brought 4.52 inches in a single day — a new daily rainfall record for Santa Barbara. Data from the National Weather Service ranks this season among the top 10 wettest starts to a water year on record across Southern California.

The early and persistent rainfall has also influenced fire conditions. After a series of damaging wildfires earlier in 2025, including two of the state’s largest fires of the year, the state saw relatively muted fire activity through the fall. According to an X post from the California Wildfire Tracker, “Rain came quickly this year, and fire season was effectively over before offshore winds could really get going in the autumn.”

Reservoir levels have followed the same trajectory. Lake Cachuma, the largest reservoir in Santa Barbara County, reached full capacity by the end of December. Across the state, major reservoirs are now at or above average levels for this point in the year.

The rain has also sparked conversation about the possibility of a wildflower bloom this spring. Hillsides and trail edges across the county have already begun turning green. While a superbloom isn’t guaranteed, current conditions are favorable. Continued rainfall through January and February will be the deciding factor.

After this weekend of high rain probability, the gradual decline begins Monday. Rain chances drop to 30 percent by early next week. High temperatures will stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, with overnight lows dipping into the 40s. 

As the New Year begins, Santa Barbara remains well ahead of schedule on rainfall totals. That said, California’s rainy season continues on for another three months, and it will be seen whether this pattern holds. For now, there is a bright side that no part of California is in a drought.