The next couple of days are likely to bring steady rain to Santa Barbara, with a flood watch announced from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon when as much as a full of inch of rain could pound down over the course of an hour, the National Weather Service predicts.
“The lion’s share of the rain is from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening,” said Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “This is a pretty potent system,” he added. “That doesn’t necessarily mean it rains hard for a whole hour, but you could get rain during that period that’s really heavy.” The heaviest rain is likely to fall on south-facing slopes — as much as a storm total of two inches — and contribute to flooded streets in low-lying areas.
The storm coming out of the north is a cold one, and the instability up around 20,000 feet means thunderstorms are likely. “Maybe not where you are,” Wofford clarified, “but somewhere in the area.” The storm track affects California from about the Bay Area down to Baja, as the clouds move toward the northeast.
Wofford explained that this early season rain was unrelated to El Niño, which won’t turn into rain storms in this area until perhaps January. Rains in October are not that unusual, he said.
Looking at Santa Barbara County hydrology records, October precipitation is usually measured in the tenths of inches. If past is prelude, big rain in October predominated during La Niña or neutral years, though the heavy El Niño of 1983-84 recorded 2.39 inches in October in contrast to the neutral year of 2000-2001, during which 4.55 inches fell in October.
[UPDATE: Oct. 20, 2026, 6:30pm] The City of Santa Barbara opened sandbag stations at the city yard (401 E. Yanonali St.) and Fire Station 7 (2411 Stanwood Dr.) on Wednesday and Thursday, 8 a.m. – 3 p.m. The city provides sand and sandbags; residents provide their own manpower. Bring gloves and shovels; fill sandbags halfway. More at SantaBarbaraCA.gov/Sandbags.
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