HBJ-Strickland Keeping It Interesting

With most other ballots casted and counted, one race continues to keep us here at the private election party titillated: Hannah-Beth Jackson vs. Tony Strickland.

We've never got so much mail in our boxes ($7 million much, I've read), and yet, the race remains super-tight. With 31% of the vote in:

Hannah-Beth Jackson: 53 %

Tony Strickland: 47 %


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The current spread in favor of Jackson now is only 3.2% and still about two-thirds of precincts are not yet reported for Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks, per the Ventura County report at 0139 a few minutes ago.

Votes from that part of Ventura County will tend to favor Strickland, so the question is if the current lead for Jackson overall can be kept, as it is shrinking as more Ventura County votes are counted.

Keeping it interesting, indeed....

David_Pritchett (David Pritchett)
November 5, 2008 at 2:01 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Regarding taxin' Obama, the alternative sure worked out real good: spending lots of money without having it. Instead of taxin'; us now, we've taxed our kids and grandkids. We're just all heart. Makes you kind of warm and fuzzy all over. But you got your SUV, the loan lenders (kinda reminds you Jesus and the moneychangers) got their huge commissions, and our beloved president moved closer to achieving the neocon goal, which was spending borrowed money on war so there wouldn't be any left over to spend on those damn government programs for infrastructure and other horribly wasteful things that actually did some good for the people at the bottom of the feeding chain, the ones who actually pay the taxes.

rubenken (anonymous profile)
November 5, 2008 at 8:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)

and back to the point of this blog...

California Secretary of State reports at present for late election night, the count:
Hannah-Beth Jackson: 153,106 50.1%
Tony Strickland: 152,998 49.9%

That is a difference of mere 108 votes!!!!
Secretary of State website is now down for current vote counts per County.

LOTS of votes from Ventura County still are not yet counted in these totals (per Ventura Star news article below from this morning). So far Jackson is 4.3% behind Strickland in the Ventura County vote counts.

The remaining late-mail and provisional ballots in Ventura County should --analysts during past elections have agreed-- represent a "somewhat random" collection of Ventura County voter sentiment.

So, the question remains about where all the remaining uncounted votes will come from within Ventura County and a smaller (still so far unreported) number from Santa Barbara County. (The Los Angeles County, Santa Clarita, portion of the Senate District is too small for this analysis so far).

With the huge voter turnout in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, that could be many THOUSANDS of uncounted votes in both counties, thereby leading to a conclusion that the current micro-lead for Strickland may not hold... or it could widen... or not.

from Ventura County Star today:
Many votes still left to be counted
by Star Staff

Updated 08:22 a.m., November 5, 2008
* Jackson, Strickland too close to call

Tens of thousands of ballots are left to be counted in Ventura County.

Tracy Saucedo, Ventura County assistant registrar of voters and manager of the elections division, said late absentee and provisional ballots are still being counted and it is unknown how many were cast.

The current election results represent all of the regular ballots cast at the polling places on Tuesday and absentees ballots turned in early. The 182,283 votes turned in by the precincts and 60,537 ballots that were mailed in have been counted for a total of 242,820 votes counted.

Before the election, officials predicted turnout to be more than 80 percent of registered voters, or about 340,000 votes.

By Thursday at 5 p.m. the county elections office must report to the California Secretary of State exactly how many ballots are in and how many must still be counted.

David_Pritchett (David Pritchett)
November 5, 2008 at 9:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I was surprised that Strickland didn't use the "squawk box incident" of 2003 (I believe) in his commercials. That's when Mrs. Jackson & some of her Dem counterparts were discussing behind closed doors how to prolong the budget impasse & make it look like it was the Rep's fault that the budget was delayed. Only thing was the "squawk box" in the room was on & everybody in the Capitol Building heard what was going on :) henry

hank (anonymous profile)
November 5, 2008 at 10:08 a.m. (Suggest removal)

I heard on the news that there are 30,000 uncounted ballots remaining in this race.

ty (anonymous profile)
November 5, 2008 at 10:39 a.m. (Suggest removal)

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