Not So Fast

I must respectfully disagree with the Angry Poodle Barbecue’s “Praying for Hail Mary Pass in Brett Kavanaugh Hearings.” My disagreement is not with the content of Nick Welsh’s article, which I agree with wholeheartedly, but rather his tone and conclusions.

The author is right to point out the risks of a Republican ambush on Christine Ford during the September 27 hearing, and no doubt the majority will use every advantage they can to press forward with Kavanaugh’s confirmation before a thorough investigation of the claims against him can be made. However, I believe Welsh overestimates the chances of Judge Kavanaugh being confirmed and underestimates the risk to the judge’s nomination.

In the past few hours, as I write this note, Judge Kavanaugh has been accused by a fourth anonymous woman, who has stated that she was sexually assaulted in 1998, again when Kavanaugh was allegedly drunk. All four accusations have a common thread: Judge Kavanaugh becomes a predator when he is inebriated.

This is of material significance, since Kavanaugh has told Congressional investigators this evening that he denies the account that his Yale suite-mate, Jamie Roche, gave in support of Doborah Ramirez’s allegations. Specifically, Kavanaugh denied Roche’s allegation that he was “frequently incoherently drunk.” Elsewhere in his testimony, Kavanaugh told investigators that he could confirm that he was not at the parties where the alleged assaults took place, because he had never been too drunk to be unsure about whether he had.

Kavanaugh’s statements to investigators, if they are shown to be false, could result in felony charges. There is therefore a significant practical and legal risk to Kavanaugh’s defense, namely that witnesses will emerge who can testify to Kavanaugh being in a drunken state at some stage during his time at Yale.

Given all the evidence — four separate allegations alleging alcohol-fueled sexual assault, corroborating testimony from Roche that Kavanaugh frequently drank to excess, Mark Judge’s writings that detail drunken debauchery, and Elizabeth Rasor’s testimony that her ex-boyfriend, and Kavanaugh’s good friend Judge, was involved in a rape similar to those detailed in the allegations — it seems probable that Kavanaugh’s defense will eventually be undermined by confirmation that he was involved in heavy drinking.

Thus I am confident that Judge Brett Kavanaugh will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court.