Prepare, Don’t Panic: Santa Barbara Leaders Look at Potential El Niño Impacts

Local leaders are planning ahead, preparing for the potential of a stormy winter season due to El Niño–related weather impacts. On Tuesday, September 22, the Santa Barbara City Council heard an update about storm preparedness, where experts from the National Weather Service and the city’s Fire and Public Works departments outlined efforts being made to ensure local agencies are ready for the worst.

Todd Hall, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, gave city councilmembers a look into the behind-the-scenes preparations being made across the Central Coast, with local agencies meeting bi-weekly with National Weather Service officials to calibrate the risks and determine protocols for the stormy season.

Hall also wanted to ease the public’s fears over the forecasted El Niño weather phenomenon, which he said is a “climate signal” that predicts the potential for a wetter winter but does not guarantee that extreme storms will arrive as strong as expected. 

El Niño patterns bring warmer temperature waves that push across the Pacific Ocean, spreading toward the western shore of South America and fanning upward and outward up the Pacific and into California. The Channel Islands have a dampening effect on some of these swells, but Hall said the Weather Service will be monitoring for potentially damaging storms from the southeast and southwest.

He noted that preparation talks often look into worst-case scenarios, leading to misinformation that can spread fear among the public.

“There’s a lot going on on social media currently,” Hall said. “There’s lots of hypothetical extremes and misinformation out there.”

The National Weather Service and local jurisdictions always prepare for how to respond to the most extreme conditions, but Hall said officials are careful about real-time messaging, making sure that all live notifications reflect the on-the-ground reality of the situation.

“The National Weather Services chooses to focus on real-world actionable forecasts and weather information,” Hall said. “We will only escalate our messaging when we have reasonable confidence to put the reasonable worst-case scenarios, only once sufficient scientific evidence exists of the storm’s arrival.” 

Meteorologists are “highly confident” that very strong El Niño conditions will persist throughout this winter. The existence of these conditions, however, does not necessarily mean storms will occur, Hall explained. Instead, it’s more accurate to say the winter conditions will make frequent rains more probable.

It’s also difficult to predict when the storm season would begin, Hall said.

“We’ve had El Niños that start generating storms as early as November and December,” he said. “Other El Niños, we start to see the storm track open between January and February. It’s really anytime in the wintertime. That’s why we’re trying to tell people: Prepare, don’t panic.”

The city Fire Department and Public Works Department are working closely to prepare for a significant amount of rainfall this winter, along with potential impacts from flooding, debris accumulation, and erosion, which could lead to stormwater system impacts and other weather-related emergencies. These preparations include inspection and maintenance of stormwater drains, and review of the city’s emergency response protocols.

City officials say that residents should begin to take steps to prepare for the potential stormy season, by learning about hazards that could affect your neighborhood, or planning routes in case of road closures, flooding, downed trees, or other rain impact. 

“Talk with the people in your household about what you would do,” read the staff report prepared by Public Works Director Brian D’Amour. “Review your emergency plan, make sure your supplies are ready, and consider what you may need for children, pets, or anyone in your household who may need additional assistance.”

The County of Santa Barbara will host a livestream on its El Niño preparations on YouTube in English and Spanish on Thursday, October 1, 5:30-7 p.m. For more information on getting an early start on winter prep, see ReadySBC.org.