This article was underwritten in part by the Mickey Flacks Journalism Fund for Social Justice, a proud, innovative supporter of local news. To make a contribution go to sbcan.org/journalism_fund.
UC Santa Barbara’s fall quarter starts this week, and the cliff homes on Isla Vista’s most famous street are full again. On Del Playa Drive, students catch up with friends, lounging together on balconies or in yards. Cars are parked two or three deep in driveways, and cardboard boxes are stacked high beside dumpsters.
Meanwhile, thousands of miles south, a deep, massive pool of warm water has formed in the tropical Pacific, triggering the phenomenon commonly called El Niño. El Niño years increase the chance of heavy rainfall in Southern California — the kind of rain that could cause massive chunks of Isla Vista’s already eroding cliff to fall to the waves below, taking balconies, patios, or whatever else is above along with it. This year, scientists are predicting one of the strongest El Niños ever.
What risk do Del Playa Drive residents face this year, and what are people doing about it?
Why Rain Means Risk
Isla Vista’s bluffs are made of sand and weak rock. Specifically, said engineering consulting geologist Larry Gurrola, rain from above can sink through the sand layer, and seep into fractures in the mudstone layer below, increasing the pressure on the rock around it. Eventually, that pressure becomes too much. Portions of the shale layer can collapse into the sea.
“It’s almost like a glacier collapsing sometimes, where these blocks collapse out and then break up on the beach,” Gurrola said.
Gurrola has more than 30 years of experience studying cliff erosion. He said rain can combine with high tides and storm surges that push large waves against I.V.’s cliffs, cutting into the bluffs and eroding them further.

Can You See It?
The bluff’s erosion isn’t anything new; newspaper articles from as early as 1963 mention an average erosion rate of six inches per year. Note that’s an average; the bluff’s erosion is episodic, meaning it will stay stable until a chunk, or chunks, break off.
Folks living on Del Playa recognize the problem. The Independent spoke to students on Del Playa on Tuesday. One tenant who lives in a home on the cliff told the Independent that he’s watched the house’s backyard disappear since starting school at UCSB.
“Erosion’s always kind of in the back of your mind,” he said.
Another tenant said she lives in one of the newest builds on the street.
“It’s the only one you can’t see from the beach. All the others are just right by the cliff,” she said.
She, too, said she’s watched friends’ backyards disappear since her freshman year at UCSB.
Has El Niño Caused Damage to the Bluffs Before?
Yes. In February 2024, 45 tenants were evacuated from a property in the 6700 block of Del Playa Drive after the property’s balcony collapsed due to erosion. Storms that winter brought heavy rainfall and storm surges — it was a strong El Niño year. Two months later, another balcony collapsed.
In March 1998, at the time the strongest El Niño year on record, a debate over a sea wall off Isla Vista’s coast was in full swing. News articles at the time report decks collapsing after heavy storm conditions.
Of course, collapses have occurred in non–El Niño years as well. A 2005 Santa Barbara News-Press article reports on two cliff collapses damaging property after winter storms.

Mitigation and Monitoring
Developer and property owner Ed St. George owns several properties on oceanside Del Playa. He said that his goal is to make sure water runs into the street, not down the side of the cliff where it will further erode the cliff’s edge behind his properties. As part of that, he said, he hires people to clean the gutters on his properties in the fall.
St. George said that landowners failing to clean debris from their gutters is a major issue on the street; if the water cannot run through the gutter, it comes over the troughs and erodes the cliff from above.
Santa Barbara County has a bluff policy for the 80-odd buildings on Del Playa Drive. If a building gets within 15 feet of the edge, a geotechnical study to assess the bluff’s stability is required. Then, once the building’s foundation is within 10 feet of the bluff’s edge, the county requires the people living there to vacate that portion of the building. Patios and balconies are not included in this system.
Ahead of storms, deputies from the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office go door-to-door with notices to inform residents of the risk, said Planning Director Lisa Plowman.
Plowman said that county officials walk the beach to check for erosion after storms and fly drones to take measurements quarterly. When permitted on the property, Plowman said, the county has taken measurements as part of their rental inspection program. But, she said, many property owners and tenants on Del Playa did not permit county inspectors in their homes as part of the program.

Santa Barbara County is looking for more data on the bluff’s erosion. In 2024, the county updated its bluff policy, requesting that property owners submit their own measurements twice annually. Currently, Plowman said, the county receives measurements on how far buildings are from the cliff’s edge when property owners apply to cut off part of their structures. At the September 1 Board of Supervisors meeting, Plowman said that no property owner had voluntarily submitted the measurements.
St. George said he was not aware of this requirement. He said he tracks erosion on his properties, placing a PVC pipe with distance measurements on it that runs to the edge of the cliff. He said he has people check the pipe regularly, and if it’s sticking over, it means the bluff has eroded further.
Too much erosion means moving buildings. Of the roughly 80 properties lining the bluff, 30 have been cut back, meaning their owners have physically cut off a portion of the building and moved it farther back on the property.
Supervisor Laura Capps, whose district includes Isla Vista, discussed the increased risk El Niño poses to cliff collapse. Capps later told the Independent she’s extremely concerned about erosion to the bluff. She said that property rights are strong and should be but that the risk of injury or disaster is high.
“We have so much educating to do,” Capps said. She added that each year, a new crop of college-aged tenants takes up residence and party on Del Playa Drive. While locals may hear about bluff safety each year, the risk can be new to these tenants.
The bluffs have been a focal point for Capps. She has created an eight-step Isla Vista Bluff Safety Plan after the death of 19-year-old Santa Barbara City College student Benny Schurmer in September 2023. She said that the bluff plan also applies to storms, which includes educating people on cliff fall risks and posting warnings.
Capps is also interested in using new technology to monitor cliff erosion. She said the Beach Erosion Authority for Clean Oceans and Nourishment (BEACON), a government body where she is a boardmember, met September 18 to learn more about sensors that could provide warnings on localized bluff erosion.
Whether cliff erosion causes damage this year remains to be seen; the risk depends on the rain.
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